UK Checker Methodology
News checker War risk Nuclear map Methodology

Public evidence, honest confidence

How UKRISK calculates the news-signal score

UKRISK is a public-source warning indicator. It scans news, official/security feeds, specialist defence sources, regional UK outlets, and discovery feeds, then scores what those public sources are signalling. It is not secret intelligence, not a government warning, and not a true probability that war will happen.

Back to dashboard Nuclear map
Best plain-English meaning: A score of 70 means public sources are showing a strong risk signal. It does not mean there is a 70% chance of war.

Score recipe

What the score weighs

Direct UK/NATO war evidenceHighest weight
NATO-border pressureAirspace, Baltic, Poland, Black Sea
Escalation eventsMissiles, drones, sabotage, cyber, troops
Nuclear rhetoricSeparated from official incoming-alert wording
Official postureUK Government, NATO, NCSC, UN, CISA, defence.gov, IAEA
Cooling evidenceDiplomacy, negotiations, ceasefire, de-escalation

Confidence

What confidence means

Confidence is source quality, not certainty. It rises when more reliable and different source groups agree, when evidence is fresh, and when source routes are healthy.

Criticism guard

False-positive protection

  • High bands need direct UK/NATO, nuclear, official, or emergency-warning evidence.
  • Discovery-only or popular-source-heavy results reduce confidence.
  • Repeated versions of the same story do not count like independent proof.
  • Diplomacy and de-escalation wording pulls the score down.

Missing information

What UKRISK cannot know

  • Classified intelligence.
  • Private diplomatic backchannels.
  • Unreported military movements.
  • Future government decisions.

Version log

UKRISK versions

4.4Trust update: clearer public-source score, source-quality table, score recipe, analyst notes, and stronger official-source disclosure.
4.3Official-alert provenance checks, nuclear-rhetoric separation, and emergency-language isolation.
4.2Nerd Mode, source-route expansion, confidence diagnostics, and repeated-use stability.
4.1Phone-friendly dashboard, firmware panels, source-stack balance, and history tracking.
4.0Multi-source intelligence engine with specialist-source fusion and evidence caps.